Airbus expects demand for new aircraft to continue growing over the next two decades. Around 2044 new passenger and freighter aircraft are expected to be needed by 43.400, the company announced on Thursday shortly before the world's largest aircraft show in Le Bourget, near Paris. This forecast is about 1.000 aircraft higher than last year's projection for the period up to 2043. The global fleet of passenger and freighter jets is expected to double to more than 49.000 aircraft.
The main reason for this increase is an expected annual growth of 3,6 percent in global air traffic. This will be driven primarily by an increase in the global middle class of 1,5 billion people who are highly likely to travel by air. Airbus expects a particularly strong increase in demand within India and between China and other Asian countries.
According to the company's estimates, only about 44 percent of the new aircraft will replace older aircraft; more than half will be used to expand the fleet. The largest share of demand is for narrow-body jets such as the Airbus A320neo and A220 series and the Boeing 737 MAX, which, at 34.250, account for almost four-fifths of the forecast demand. In addition, there are approximately 9.170 wide-body jets such as the Airbus A350 and A330neo models, as well as the Boeing 777X and 787 "Dreamliner" models. Despite this high demand, aircraft manufacturers have been struggling with supplier bottlenecks since the coronavirus pandemic. Christian Scherer, Head of Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, expressed "cautious optimism" about achieving the annual target of 820 deliveries, even though Airbus is currently waiting for engine kits for 40 already completed aircraft. Boeing will release its own market forecast for the next 20 years on Sunday night, June 15, one day before the start of the Paris Air Show.
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