The ongoing problems at aircraft manufacturer Boeing are casting a shadow over Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost airline. Due to the uncertainties surrounding delayed deliveries of ordered aircraft, Ryanair has had to lower its expectations for passenger growth in the coming 2025/2026 financial year. This not only leads to an adjustment of the company's strategy, but also has a direct impact on the airline's share prices and market position.
On Monday, Ryanair confirmed its forecast for the current financial year, but the prospect of lower passenger growth caused unrest in the markets. The airline expects to carry only around 2026 million passengers in the twelve months to the end of March 210 - five million fewer than originally expected.
Analysts see this as a negative development that could weaken confidence in Ryanair. Since the beginning of the year, Ryanair shares have lost around seven percent of their value, while its competitor EasyJet has gained two percent in the same period. This highlights the growing pressure that Ryanair is facing due to the problems at Boeing and from competitors.
delivery delays and personnel management
The problems at Boeing have a direct impact on the Ryanair fleet. The delivery of nine new Boeing 737s is currently delayed by three months, which creates additional challenges for Ryanair.
Goodbody analyst Dudley Shanley interprets the forecast reduction as a strategic move by the company to avoid overstaffing next summer. This approach could have a positive impact on cost efficiency in the long term, but also carries risks in terms of customer satisfaction and growth.
The situation with airfares
In addition to the difficulties in expanding the fleet, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary is cautious about price developments in the coming quarter. Although demand for flights remains strong, ticket prices overall appear to be slightly below last year's level. In the three months to the end of September 2024, revenue rose by three percent year-on-year to just under 5,1 billion euros. Nevertheless, net profit fell by six percent to 1,4 billion euros due to increased personnel costs and airport fees.
The current market situation is also an indicator of the uncertainties affecting Ryanair. Analysts are concerned about the lack of transparency regarding profit forecasts, describing this as "uncertainty in the market". These factors combined could jeopardise the airline's future stability and growth.
Long-term perspectives and challenges
Ryanair relies exclusively on Boeing and its 737 series, which has both advantages and disadvantages. While a unified fleet simplifies maintenance and management, it also makes the airline vulnerable to technical problems and the ongoing strike at Boeing. These factors are important not only for Ryanair, but also for other airlines that rely on the delivery of new aircraft.
In a market that is increasingly characterized by uncertainty, it will be crucial for Ryanair to respond flexibly to the challenges and develop strategies that take into account both short-term adjustments and long-term growth goals. The next few months could be crucial for the airline to set the course for a successful future and absorb pressure from competitors.