The independent arbitration board for travel and transport registered a significant increase in arbitration requests in the first six months of 2026. With approximately 29.000 newly registered applications, the volume in the first half of the year is more than 50 percent higher than in the two preceding years.
In addition to the well-known operational problems in air and rail transport, the organization identifies a novel factor contributing to this development: the increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence applications makes it significantly easier for consumers to identify their rights and submit formalized claims. This leads to a persistently high workload for the dispute resolution infrastructure, which is becoming increasingly decoupled from seasonal fluctuations.
Unusual trend in case numbers at the beginning of the year
The statistical analysis for the first half of 2026 reveals a significant deviation from historical trends. In the same periods of previous years, the number of applications remained more stable. In the first half of 2024, 19.492 applications were recorded, while in the first half of 2025 a slight decrease to 18.836 cases was observed. The sharp increase to approximately 29.000 cases this year thus marks a turning point in the work of the conciliation board.
The change in the monthly pattern during spring and early summer 2026 is particularly striking. Historically, a seasonal decline in claims was regularly observed between February and June, as fewer vacations take place during this period (excluding Easter holidays) and air and rail services often stabilize. However, this decline failed to materialize in 2026. Instead, June saw a doubling of claims compared to June of the previous year. This continuous increase suggests that the threshold for filing complaints has permanently decreased, and consumers are seeking legal clarification regardless of when they traveled.
Air traffic remains the primary point of contention.
A clear distribution of complaints across different modes of transport emerges. Air travel accounts for by far the largest share with approximately 24.000 claims, representing roughly 83 percent of the total volume. The remaining cases are distributed as follows: 14 percent for rail travel (approximately 4.000 claims), and smaller portions for tour operators, local public transport, long-distance bus companies, and shipping.
The reasons for passenger dissatisfaction in air travel are multifaceted. The arbitration panel states that, in addition to extreme weather events, the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are a major burden on European airspace. The necessary detours around crisis regions lead to a shortage of airspace capacity, which in turn causes chain reactions and delays across the entire European flight network. Furthermore, several labor disputes at airlines and ground handling services in the spring temporarily paralyzed operations. In the rail sector, on the other hand, the deficiencies in the domestic rail infrastructure are the primary concern. Outdated signal boxes, unforeseen line closures, and a significant backlog of necessary repairs led to numerous train cancellations and missed connections in the first half of the year, which passengers are no longer willing to tolerate.
Technological innovations are changing the complaints system.
According to expert analysis, the significant increase in arbitration requests cannot be explained solely by a deterioration in operational processes at transport companies. A key driver is technological change on the consumer side. The increased use of artificial intelligence-based programs has fundamentally altered the dynamics of consumer protection. Digital assistants and automated platforms allow travelers to check compensation claims within minutes, without any legal expertise, and to complete the relevant forms digitally.
These AI-powered tools not only help users find the relevant arbitration bodies more quickly online, but they also formulate their statements of facts precisely and in a legally sound manner. Other consumer protection and universal arbitration bodies in Germany are now sharing similar observations. While this development is positive from a consumer protection perspective, as it democratizes the enforcement of rights, it presents arbitration organizations with immense logistical challenges. Processing the often standardized, but massive, incoming applications requires a significant amount of personnel and administrative resources, which can hardly be managed in a timely manner with existing structures. Critics also point out that the automated creation of applications could lead to unfounded cases being entered into the systems, thus prolonging the processing time for legitimate claims.
Forecasts and administrative challenges for the second half of the year
The conciliation body anticipates a continued high workload throughout 2026. In its annual forecast, the organization expects a total volume of cases that will significantly exceed the figures of previous years. By comparison, 45.634 applications were registered in all of 2024, and the number decreased slightly to 41.996 in 2025. Given the 29.000 cases already reached in the first half of the year, a total of well over 50.000 applications for 2026 appears to be a realistic scenario.
This development is forcing the arbitration board and the participating transport companies to critically review their processes. If the number of applications increases faster than the capacity to process them, a backlog threatens, jeopardizing the very purpose of a swift, out-of-court settlement. The transport companies are thus facing a dual challenge: on the one hand, improving operational reliability on the rail and air, and on the other hand, preparing their own legal departments to handle a wave of digitized lawsuits. The coming months will show whether the arbitration board can respond to this technological advancement of consumers by digitizing its own internal review processes.