The German air transport market is facing a worrying downward spiral in spring 2026. According to current data from the German Airports Association (ADV), German airports recorded a dramatic drop in passenger numbers in April, to just 16,7 million travelers.
This slump equates to a loss of approximately 1,65 million passengers compared to forecasts and the previous year's figures. The reasons for this development are multifaceted and stem from a combination of geopolitical crises, massive labor disputes, and structural disadvantages. While the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the associated increases in kerosene prices are impacting the entire industry, the German market is additionally suffering from week-long strikes at the national airline Lufthansa, as well as a comparatively high tax burden. Industry experts and association representatives are now issuing urgent warnings about a permanent erosion of Germany's connectivity, which could have far-reaching consequences for the country's economic output and international integration.
Geopolitical upheavals and their impact on operating costs
A key factor in the current crisis is the instability in the Middle East. The armed conflict has not only led to direct flight cancellations to the crisis region, costing approximately 400.000 passengers in April alone, but has also destabilized global energy markets. The closure of important airspaces and the thwarting of supply routes have driven the price of kerosene to a level that forces many airlines to drastically adjust their capacities. Since fuel represents the single largest item in an airline's operating costs, low-cost carriers in particular are sensitive to these price increases. In Germany, this is resulting in the discontinuation of routes that would normally be profitable due to high operating costs and additional government levies.
The effects of this cost explosion are hitting Germany particularly hard, as the country is already burdened by high government fees. While other European markets are recovering more quickly from the crises of recent years, the number of flights at German airports is stagnating or even declining. The German Airports Association (ADV) emphasizes that airlines are relocating their aircraft to where the conditions are more profitable. This is leading to a gradual thinning of the flight schedule, affecting not only tourist routes but also, increasingly, business travel destinations that are crucial for Germany's economic standing.
Labor disputes paralyze national air traffic
In addition to external shocks, internal conflicts placed an extraordinary burden on the industry in April 2026. The week-long strikes by ground and cabin crew at the Lufthansa Group created a significant gap in traffic statistics. Nearly one million passengers were unable to begin their planned journeys or had to resort to alternative modes of transport. These labor disputes not only resulted in immediate revenue losses for airports and airlines but also severely damaged travelers' confidence in the reliability of the German air transport system.
The increasing frequency of these strikes is seen by industry representatives as a warning sign. At a time when airports are facing fierce competition for new routes and airlines, unreliable operating conditions are deterring international partners. Ralph Beisel, CEO of the ADV (German Airports Association), sees the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and national labor disputes as a dangerous mix that threatens the economic foundation of airports. Since many airports are still struggling with the financial repercussions of the past years of crisis, they now lack the funds for necessary investments in infrastructure and modernization.
Structural location problems and withdrawal of airlines
Beyond the daily crisis reports, the industry is primarily concerned about long-term developments. The withdrawal of major market players from the German market is taking concrete form. A prominent example is Ryanair's announcement of massive capacity reductions at Berlin Brandenburg Airport. These route cancellations will result in the loss of over two million seats per year. The airline explicitly justifies this move with the high government-imposed operating costs in Germany, particularly the air passenger duty and increased air security fees.
This trend is not limited to the capital. A reduction in capacity can also be observed at regional airports and other major hubs such as Hamburg, Cologne/Bonn, and Stuttgart. In a European comparison, Germany is lagging far behind countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece in the recovery of its seat capacity. While capacity in these countries is already partially above pre-2020 levels, Germany is barely reaching 80 percent of its previous levels. Experts consider this discrepancy a clear indication of a self-inflicted competitive disadvantage. Connectivity—that is, Germany's accessibility to the world and vice versa—is at risk of lasting damage, which could also impact its attractiveness to foreign investors in the medium term.
Demands on politicians: Relief as a last resort
In light of the looming decline of Germany's aviation industry, the German Airports Association (ADV) is making an urgent appeal to the federal government. Since policymakers have only limited influence over geopolitical crises and global commodity prices, they must focus their efforts where they have direct power: on the regulatory framework. The association's central demand is the immediate suspension of the air passenger duty to provide airlines with the short-term financial flexibility needed to maintain routes. In the medium term, the association aims for a permanent halving of this levy to regain competitiveness in the European market.
Furthermore, a reform of the financing of aviation security measures is being demanded. The costs for passenger and baggage screening in Germany have risen disproportionately in recent years and are almost entirely passed on to travelers and companies. The association advocates for these costs to be financed more extensively from tax revenue as part of the national security architecture, as is already the practice in many other countries. Only a significant reduction in state-induced costs can halt this downward trend. The federal government must recognize that air travel is not a luxury, but an essential infrastructure for an export-oriented industrialized nation.
Outlook for the coming months
The outlook for the remaining months of 2026 remains bleak. While a seasonal upturn is expected for the summer months, the structural problems persist. Should kerosene prices remain consistently high due to the situation in the Middle East, and should no political relief be forthcoming, further airlines are likely to revise their summer flight schedules downwards.
For German airports, this means a prolonged period of uncertainty, in which securing jobs and maintaining infrastructure will become a daily challenge. The industry is now anxiously awaiting reactions from Berlin, as decisions regarding next winter's flight schedules are already being made. Without a clear signal from policymakers in support of the aviation industry, 2026 could go down in history as the year Germany lost some of its position as a central European air traffic hub.