In a rapidly changing sector, the aviation industry faces a dual challenge: the drive for sustainability meets limited resources and regulatory disagreement.
The International Airline Association (IATA) recently published an optimistic forecast for the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while Lufthansa is pushing for urgent corrections to the EU climate package and criticizing the German government. The conflict between ambitious environmental goals and practical implementation is coming to a head, while the industry is hoping for a turnaround in sustainability strategy.
Increasing production dynamics and high costs for SAF
Despite the challenges, IATA is optimistic about SAF. According to the association's current data, 2024 million tonnes of SAF are expected to be available in 1,5, a threefold increase compared to the previous year. Speaking at the association's annual conference in Dubai in early summer 2024, IATA Director General Willie Walsh predicted that 2030 million tonnes of SAF could be available annually from 51. This estimate indicates exponential growth, which is crucial for the industry to achieve climate goals.
However, SAF is currently very limited and remains expensive. Lufthansa policy chief Kay Lindemann explains that SAF is currently two to five times more expensive than conventional kerosene. This pricing pattern is exacerbated by the low supply and the associated shortage. Lufthansa has already been using SAF in its operations for years, but soon sees a predicament as EU-wide quotas for SAF come into force from January 1, 2025. The required share starts at two percent and is set to rise to 2050 percent by 70.
Criticism of EU regulations and special national solutions
Criticism of EU policy is nothing new for Lufthansa. According to Lindemann, Europe lacks a robust industrial policy that underpins climate goals with the necessary investment power in production facilities. The situation with electricity-based fuels, also known as power-to-liquid (PtL), is seen as particularly problematic. From 2030, the share of PtL must be 1,2 percent and is expected to rise to 2050 percent by 35. But there are currently no PtL production facilities in Europe, and projects that have already started have been stopped.
Lufthansa is calling for a comprehensive and coherent import strategy to close the PtL supply gap. The current national special solution in Germany, which stipulates a PtL blending quota of 0,5 percent from 2025, is viewed by Lufthansa as problematic. Lindemann warns of "absurd penalties" for airlines and customers if the prescribed fuels are not available. This situation could endanger the competitiveness of the German aviation industry and cause unnecessary costs.
Importance and impact of regulations
The regulations on the use of SAF and PtL are part of the global effort to make the aviation industry more sustainable. The EU climate plan aims to drastically reduce emissions from aviation and to switch the industry to environmentally friendly fuels. While these goals are welcome, they conflict with the reality of insufficient supply and high production costs for sustainable fuels.
The aviation industry is faced with the challenge of balancing these environmental policy requirements with the practical possibilities of fuel production and availability. Lufthansa's calls for adjustments and an effective import strategy reflect the need to find realistic solutions to put the industry on a sustainable course.
It remains to be seen how the regulatory framework and production capacities for SAF and PtL will develop in the future. The industry depends on innovative solutions and stronger political support to achieve the ambitious climate targets. The path to sustainable aviation is complex and marked by numerous challenges, but progress and investments in this area will be crucial to the success of global environmental strategies.
and 