Irish low-cost airline Ryanair announced in January 2025 that it had reduced its passenger forecast for fiscal year 2026 by 4 million to 206 million passengers. A key reason for this adjustment is repeated delivery delays by Boeing, which are significantly impacting fleet expansion. Despite these challenges, Ryanair was able to post a significant increase in profits in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, due to stabilized demand and the successful resolution of internal disputes.
In the third quarter of the 2025 financial year (Q3 FY25), Ryanair reported a profit after tax of €149 million, a significant improvement year-on-year (2024: €15 million). Revenue increased by 10% to €2,96 billion, putting Ryanair in a stable position for the remaining months of the year. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary explained that the strong performance in the third quarter was mainly due to the resolution of a dispute with online travel agents (OTAs) in late 2023. During this period, the business was negatively affected due to the conflicts with the OTAs. With this conflict resolved, Ryanair has now been able to return to a "normal" business performance.
The 8% increase in operating costs to €2,93 billion was largely offset by higher passenger numbers of 44,9 million, up 9% year-on-year. Ryanair noted in the fourth quarter that ticket prices were stabilising, indicating continued strong demand.
Boeing delivery delays hinder growth
Despite the positive trend in passenger numbers, the biggest problem for Ryanair remains the ongoing delay in Boeing 737 MAX deliveries. This issue has already led to a reduction in the passenger forecast for 2026 and is affecting the airline's strategy for the coming years. As of December 31, 2024, Ryanair had a total of 172 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s in its fleet and 609 aircraft in total. Compared to the first half of 2025, only two more aircraft of this type were delivered, making it difficult to expand the aircraft fleet.
The delays in deliveries are due in particular to production problems at Boeing, which were exacerbated by a strike by Boeing employees in the autumn of 2024. Although Boeing resumed production in December 2024, the situation remains tense. O'Leary stressed that Ryanair is working closely with Boeing to accelerate the delivery of new aircraft. However, the risk of further delivery delays remains high, which could affect Ryanair's plans for the summer months of 2025 and beyond.
Ryanair relies on capacity redistribution and tax relief
Despite these challenges, Ryanair's target of carrying 200 million passengers per year remains, and the airline is increasingly relying on redistributing its capacity to airports and regions that offer incentives for growth, such as tax breaks. In particular, Sweden, Hungary and several Italian regions have taken measures to encourage air travel in the past. Ryanair also expects capacity in the European short-haul market to remain limited in the coming years, as many European airlines struggle with issues maintaining their Airbus fleets and a general consolidation in the market.
O'Leary stressed that Ryanair will benefit from further consolidation in the industry, particularly with Lufthansa's takeover of ITA and the upcoming privatisation of TAP Air Portugal. In the meantime, Ryanair expects the problems with Boeing and the competitive situation to continue to keep European air traffic on its toes.
forecast for the full year 2025
For the full financial year 2025, Ryanair expects profit after tax (PAT) to be between €1,55 billion and €1,61 billion, although this will continue to depend on external factors, including geopolitical uncertainties such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as possible further problems with aircraft deliveries and air traffic control (ATC) staff management in Europe.
Despite these uncertainties, Ryanair remains optimistic for the coming years due to its stable market position and its continued efforts to reallocate capacity and control costs.