The European aviation industry is facing one of its most severe challenges in decades. As a result of the military escalation in the Middle East and the associated blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply chain for petroleum products has virtually ground to a halt. Fatih Birol, the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued a stark warning about the consequences of this disruption, describing the current situation as the greatest energy crisis in modern history.
The situation is particularly critical with regard to jet fuel, kerosene. Since Europe is heavily dependent on imports from the Gulf region, existing stocks are dwindling rapidly. According to current estimates, kerosene reserves on the European continent will only last for about six more weeks. This development has already led to a massive price increase; jet fuel prices have more than doubled in a very short time. As an immediate reaction, major airlines such as Lufthansa have already begun to reduce their flight schedules and prematurely retire older, fuel-intensive aircraft.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for air traffic
The Strait of Hormuz is considered the most important maritime artery of the global economy. Around one-fifth of the world's oil production is transported through this narrow strait between Iran and Oman. This sea route is of vital importance to European aviation, as a significant portion of the kerosene consumed in Europe either comes directly from refineries on the Persian Gulf or is produced from crude oil that must travel this route. The blockade means that tankers are either stuck or forced to take extremely time-consuming and costly detours around the Cape of Good Hope.
This increased logistical effort is directly reflected in prices on commodity exchanges. Since kerosene, unlike diesel or heating oil, must meet specific quality standards, and refinery capacity in Europe has not been expanded in recent years, there are hardly any short-term alternatives. The price surge is hitting airlines at a time when the industry had only just recovered from the economic fallout of past crises. Fuel costs now account for over 30 percent of total expenses for many airlines, completely consuming their profit margins.
Demands for a strategic kerosene reserve of the European Union
In light of the looming supply shortages, leading industry associations have taken the initiative. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe and Airlines for Europe (A4E) are calling on the European Commission in Brussels to take decisive action. At the heart of their demands is the establishment of a strategic kerosene reserve, modeled on national crude oil reserves. The aim is to create a stockpile sufficient to cover demand for at least 90 days, thus mitigating the impact of short-term supply disruptions.
Furthermore, the associations propose centralizing the procurement of aviation fuel at the EU level. A joint procurement system would strengthen the negotiating position vis-à-vis producer countries and ensure a fairer distribution of scarce resources among member states. An accompanying monitoring system would also provide real-time information on stock levels at major European hubs such as Frankfurt, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, and London-Heathrow, enabling early intervention in the event of impending local shortages. Currently, kerosene stockpiling is largely subject to the private-sector decisions of airport operators and oil companies, which is proving to be a security risk in the current crisis.
Operational consequences for airlines and passengers
The first effects of the crisis are already being felt by travelers. The Lufthansa Group was one of the first major players to react to the price shock. The company is accelerating the restructuring of its fleet and bringing forward the phasing out of four-engine aircraft types such as the Airbus A340 and the Boeing 747-400. These aircraft are considered particularly fuel-thirsty and are no longer economically viable to operate under current price conditions. At the same time, the fuel shortage is leading to a reduction in the flight schedule offered.
Flights with low occupancy are being canceled or combined with other routes to maximize efficiency per liter of kerosene consumed. Industry experts expect other European airlines, such as Air France-KLM and the IAG Group, to follow suit. For passengers, this means not only less choice and potentially longer travel times, but above all, drastically increased ticket prices. Airlines are passing on the massively increased costs directly to customers through fuel surcharges. In some market segments, price increases of 20 to 40 percent are already anticipated.
A threat to global supply security
IEA chief Fatih Birol's warning goes beyond mere price concerns. The physical availability of fuel is at stake. Should the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond the next six weeks, European airports could be forced to restrict so-called tankering. This involves aircraft refueling at distant destinations to the point where they have enough fuel for the return flight, thus avoiding expensive or scarce supplies at the destination. However, this increases the takeoff weight and therefore overall fuel consumption.
The international community is currently working at the diplomatic level to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and reopen shipping lanes. However, as long as safe passage through the strait remains impossible, European aviation will remain in crisis mode. The current blockade has made the dependence on fossil fuel imports from unstable regions more apparent than ever before. Without a fundamental reorganization of the fuel supply strategy and a diversification of sources, Europe's aviation sector risks a lasting competitive disadvantage compared to regions with their own resources.