On December 25, 2024, a tragic accident occurred in western Kazakhstan when an Embraer E-190 operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed. The plane, which was en route from Baku-Heydar Aliyev International Airport in Azerbaijan to Grozny Airport in Russia, crashed, claiming the lives of 38 of the 67 people on board. The cause of the crash, which initially seemed mysterious, may be linked to a Russian air defense incident, making the investigation an internationally explosive case.
Flight J28243, which flew from Baku to Grozny on December 25, 2024, was in Kazakhstan's airspace when the accident occurred. There were 62 passengers and five crew members on board. The circumstances of the crash are still unclear, but the incident raises many questions. After the crash, there was immediate speculation that the plane may have been accidentally shot down by Russian air defenses operating near Grozny in Russia that day. This assumption was supported by the Azerbaijani authorities, who assumed that the downing was accidental. However, Russia denied any responsibility and simply stated that the incident occurred in Russian airspace, without admitting direct blame.
The Role of Black Boxes and the International Investigation
Immediately after the crash, the aircraft's black boxes were found and handed over to the Brazilian Center for the Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents (CENIPA). On January 6, 2025, CENIPA confirmed that the data had been extracted from the flight recorders. These flight recorders record both cockpit conversations and flight data and could provide crucial clues to the cause of the crash.
The decision to send the black boxes to Brazil underlined the Azerbaijani government's efforts to ensure an objective and independent investigation. Azerbaijani authorities have been critical of Russia's role in the investigation and suggested that Russia may be trying to cover up the incident. The independence of the Brazilian agency was stressed as a necessary measure to avoid possible political conflicts of interest. In a statement, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said the decision to send the black boxes to Brazil underscores the "demand for objectivity."
The decryption of the black box data is currently ongoing, but no final results had been published as of January 7, 2025. The recordings will play a crucial role in determining the exact cause of the crash and clarifying whether it was a technical failure, a crew error, or an attack by Russian air defenses.
Azerbaijan criticizes Russia
While the investigation is ongoing, the crash has been sharply criticized by the Azerbaijani authorities. President Aliyev pointed out that immediate intervention by the Russian aviation authorities would have been necessary if the airspace had been at risk. In his statement, Aliyev stressed that in the event of a threat, the airspace should have been closed immediately and the plane should have turned back. This creates the impression that Russia did not act correctly in a possible crisis situation and thus facilitated the crash of the plane.
Aliyev also expressed concern that Russian authorities' public portrayal of the incident was spreading "absurd theories" that had only caused "surprise, regret and justified indignation." This criticism could further strain the already tense relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia, as Russia has not yet been held accountable in the international community.
A political context and international reactions
The geopolitical dimension of the incident cannot be underestimated. Azerbaijan and Russia have a tense political relationship, which further complicates the public perception of the crash and the investigation. While the Kremlin denies any responsibility, the incident is interpreted by the Azerbaijani authorities as evidence of the inadequacy of Russian security measures and possibly as part of a larger political game.
The incident was widely discussed in the international media, including the British newspaper The Guardian. Speculation about the cause of the crash and the role of Russian air defenses led to an intense debate about air security in this region and the responsibility of states responsible for the security of their countries' airspace.
Further investigations and the path to clarification
The coming weeks and months will be crucial for solving the accident. The data from the black boxes, which are currently being evaluated by CENIPA in Brazil, could provide answers to many of the open questions. However, it remains unclear whether this was a tragic accident or a military incident.
The Azerbaijani government remains committed to clarifying the incident and calls for a full, independent investigation. The international community and the families affected hope for clarity to determine the causes of this horrific crash and, where appropriate, hold those responsible to account.
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