Global passenger air traffic is facing significant regional disruptions in spring 2026. According to recent data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global demand, measured in passenger kilometers (RPK), fell by 3,4% in April 2026 compared to the same month of the previous year.
This decline is almost entirely attributable to the dramatic situation in the Middle East, where the armed conflict in Iran led to a 46,6% drop in passenger numbers. Excluding this crisis region, the global market recorded slight growth of 1,2%.
The economic environment for airlines has deteriorated drastically. In addition to the unstable political situation, massively increased operating costs are burdening the industry; kerosene prices have more than doubled within a year. According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, this cost pressure is forcing companies to reduce capacity and is leading to noticeably higher ticket prices. Global capacity fell by 2,9% in line with demand, while average aircraft occupancy was 83,1%.
Despite the crisis in the Middle East, other regions of the world are showing remarkable resilience. In Europe, demand rose by 0,9%, with direct traffic to Asia in particular flourishing, increasing by 15,3%. This growth is primarily due to travelers avoiding traditional transit hubs in the Gulf region and increasingly opting for nonstop flights. In the Asia-Pacific region, a new record load factor for April was set at 87,5%, even though political tensions between Japan and China dampened air traffic there.
The picture in the domestic market segments was mixed. While markets such as Brazil (+2,6%) and Japan (+3,7%) recorded growth, demand weakened slightly in India and the USA. The development in Latin America remains particularly noteworthy, where airlines generated an 8,9% increase in demand. Market observers predict a continuation of cautious capacity planning in the coming months, as airlines attempt to balance high fuel costs with potentially dampened consumer spending due to price increases.