The credit insurer Coface expects that the entire transport industry, including aviation, will not recover from the consequences of the corona pandemic before 2022. “We anticipate 'long suffering' for the entire aviation industry. There are currently no indications of a rapid recovery in the transport sector, ”explains Declan Daly, Regional CEO for Central and Eastern Europe at Coface. "Should there be a second wave of pandemics this year, sales in the 4th quarter of 2020 would be 57 percent and in the 4th quarter of 2021 27 percent lower than at the end of 2019".

Of the 13 sectors for which Coface publishes sectoral risk assessments, aviation is the most affected: In the base scenario, sales are likely to decline by 51 percent and in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 by 2020 percent by the end of 57. The slump in travel also led to a sharp decline in air cargo capacity, as most of the cargo is carried by passenger aircraft.

According to the Coface experts, the key to positive development could be innovation. “In the long run, sustainability and environmental protection will remain the defining challenges for the transport sector and especially for aviation. Innovations will be needed that enable less polluting traffic, ”said Daly with an outlook.