In light of impending fuel shortages in the second half of 2026, the Lufthansa Group has initiated comprehensive contingency plans. While the company's management still forecasts a stable supply situation at its main hubs in Frankfurt and Munich for the current second quarter, concerns are growing about the availability of kerosene from July 2026 onwards.
Chief Financial Officer Till Streichert confirmed that the company is reviewing operational adjustments, which could include additional refueling stops at locations with secure supplies. At the same time, CEO Carsten Spohr made an urgent appeal to the European Commission to temporarily reduce regulatory hurdles. Specifically, Lufthansa is requesting that the US fuel standard Jet A be approved without the currently mandatory additional refining to the European Jet A1 standard, and that anti-tankering regulations be suspended. These measures are intended to ensure that flight operations can be maintained despite potential logistical disruptions in the global energy market.
Analysis of the current supply situation and short-term forecasts
Within Lufthansa's management, there is currently a divided opinion regarding the timeframe of the crisis. In a statement to investors, Till Streichert emphasized that the group does not expect any immediate losses until the end of June. Storage capacities at the central hubs are sufficiently filled to handle the planned summer flight schedule in the first half of the year without restrictions. This stability is of fundamental importance to the group, as May and June are traditionally among the busiest months, and operational reliability during this period significantly influences the financial performance for the entire year.
Nevertheless, management is looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters of 2026 with concern. Uncertainties in global supply chains, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and refinery capacity issues in Europe, could lead to shortages exceeding the usual level of market fluctuations. To prepare for this scenario, various operational models are currently being tested. These include route adjustments, where long-haul flights could make scheduled stopovers at airports with direct access to pipelines or seaports with better supply capabilities.
Demand for regulatory flexibility in fuel standards
A key aspect of Lufthansa's strategy is the demand for harmonization of international fuel standards. Carsten Spohr publicly advocated for the European Commission to allow the use of Jet A fuel. This standard is primarily used in the United States and differs from the European Jet A1 mainly in its slightly higher freezing point. In normal flight operations over the European continent, this poses little technical obstacle, but current EU regulations require extensive post-processing before Jet A can be filled into European tanks.
Recognition of the US standard would allow Lufthansa to operate more flexibly on the global market and import kerosene from North America without relying on the limited capacities of European secondary refineries. Spohr argues that in an exceptional situation, security of supply must take precedence over purely formal standards. Approval would enable more direct use of the transatlantic logistics chain and reduce dependence on deliveries from Eastern Europe or unstable regions.
The debate surrounding the anti-tankering ban
Lufthansa sees the suspension of so-called anti-tankering rules as another tool for managing the crisis. Under normal competitive conditions, airlines are required to take on only the amount of fuel necessary for the respective flight segment plus safety reserves at each airport. This is intended to prevent airlines from stockpiling large quantities of cheap fuel at one location to avoid refueling at more expensive airports, which would distort competition.
However, according to Lufthansa, this rule reverses itself in a shortage situation. If supplies are uncertain at an airport, aircraft must be able to take on enough kerosene at their home hub or other secure locations to complete their return or onward flights without refueling at vulnerable destinations. While suspending these rules would increase the takeoff weight of the aircraft, it would simultaneously minimize the risk of planes being stranded at remote stations due to a lack of kerosene.
Economic implications of additional refueling stops
Planning additional refueling stops is a highly complex undertaking for an airline the size of Lufthansa. Each extra stop incurs significant costs through airport fees, increased staffing, and extended aircraft turnaround times. Furthermore, connectivity at hubs suffers when connecting flights are missed due to delayed arrivals. Nevertheless, the CFO considers this option the lesser of two evils compared to complete flight cancellations.
Operationally, locations in Northern Europe or the Mediterranean could function as such refueling hubs, provided that access to shipping routes guarantees a more stable supply. In this context, Lufthansa is also exploring cooperation with partner airlines within the Star Alliance to gain mutual access to fuel reserves. This form of logistical cooperation could become a decisive competitive advantage in the second half of the year.
Response from European authorities and outlook
So far, the European Commission has remained reserved in its response to Lufthansa's specific demands. It is expected that Brussels will first examine the overall supply situation across the entire economic area before granting any specific exemptions from safety or competition standards. Critics argue that unilaterally favoring large network carriers could disrupt the market balance. Lufthansa, however, maintains that preserving global air traffic hubs is in the interest of the entire European economy.
The coming months will show whether the management's diplomatic efforts bear fruit. Should the Commission make no concessions, Lufthansa will be forced to implement its contingency plans at a purely operational level. For passengers, this could mean longer travel times on certain routes starting this summer. The company is preparing to inform its customers early about any changes to the flight schedule in order to minimize the impact on travel. Strategic stockpiling and diversifying supply sources remain the key pillars for steering the company through a potentially turbulent second half of the year.