May 23, 2021: shortly before the flight into Lithuanian airspace, the Ryanair flight FR4978 was diverted to Minsk - many voices spoke of the abduction of the Belarusian journalist Raman Pratassewitsch, who is critical of the regime, by the Belarusian state. One day later, Great Britain closed the airspace to Belarusian aircraft and the European Union followed a day later. The flight ban mainly affected the Belavia. But it could get even harder now.

Belavia, the national airline of Belarus, operates a fleet of 33 aircraft. Some of them fly exclusively for the country's government. However, due to the European Union's flight ban, various aircraft are on the ground. The following Boeings are in the fleet: three B737-300, two B737-500, nine B737-800, one B737-800BBJ, one B737-8 and one B767-300ER. Belavia has five E175s, seven E195s and three new E195-E2s from Embraer, while a single VIP-CRJ200 (Challenger 850) from the former Canadian manufacturer Bombardier still flies in Belarus.

The EU member states Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia have observed that Belavia is offering more flights between Turkey and Minsk. They believe that this has opened a new migration route via Belarus to Lithuania and Poland. Only recently there were reports of similar refugee flights with Iraqi Airways between Iraq and Minks. Therefore, the mentioned states are now calling for stricter measures against Belarus and thus also Belavia.

Lithuania in particular is exerting pressure. “We need to make sure that no European companies are involved in people smuggling, either directly or indirectly. For example those European companies that lease planes to the otherwise sanctioned Belavia ”, Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote to the top EU diplomat Josep Borrell.

Many leasing companies are based in low-tax Ireland. Irish companies manage around half of the aircraft leased worldwide. Aviation.direct has found five contractors in the Belavia fleet that are directly or indirectly based in Dublin.

• AeroCap (1x B737-300, 2x B737-500, 3x E195-E2)
• Nordic Aviation Capital (4x E175, 3x E195)
• SMBC Aviation Capital (1x B737-800)
• Thunderbolt Aircraft Lease (1x B737-800)
• WNG Capital (1x B737-800)

If all of the above-mentioned aircraft were withdrawn, the Belavia fleet would practically be halved. The US leasing companies Air Lease Corporation, Altavair and Merx Aviation Finance should then order their aircraft back.

"All Ireland-based aircraft leasing companies are aware of the obligations that come under international aviation law," said a spokesman for the Irish Department of Transport. "In this context, the Irish aircraft leasing companies would ensure that they fully comply with all international sanctions should they come into play."

It is not yet known whether these companies will be instructed to claim their aircraft from Belavia. What is certain, however, is that it would be a difficult international legal process. If Belavia always pays the leasing installments on time, lessors see little reason to demand the aircraft from them.