An ambitious project to consolidate African airspace is on the verge of collapse. South African Airways (SAA) has officially withdrawn from plans for a pan-African airline alliance with Kenya Airways (KQ).
The two state-owned airlines had been pursuing a strategic partnership since 2021, which was intended to culminate in a merger to create a strong, competitive airline group for the fragmented continent. Kenya Airways CEO Allan Kilavuka confirmed the withdrawal in a recent interview. Despite the collapse of the alliance, some bilateral agreements, such as codesharing, are expected to remain in place for the time being. Kenya Airways is now actively seeking new partners in West and Southern Africa to finally realize its vision of a continental airline group.
From cooperation agreement to failure
The initiative, conceived by Allan Kilavuka as a kind of pan-European IAG International Airlines Group for Africa, was originally seen as a response to the dominant role of Ethiopian Airlines and the growing influence of Gulf airlines. The Memorandum of Understanding, signed in 2021, aimed to combine the strengths of both hubs in Nairobi and Johannesburg. The partners planned coordinated networking, combined pricing, and cost savings through joint procurement and ground services. The goal was to use these synergies to gain a stronger position in global competition.
The plans envisioned a gradual approach culminating in a formal merger in 2026. However, the process was repeatedly delayed due to internal restructuring, regulatory hurdles, and, not least, the failure of SAA's privatization attempt with the Takatso Aviation Consortium. The unwillingness of the new SAA management to continue the alliance ultimately dealt the project a fatal blow. While there were initial unofficial reports of SAA's withdrawal in June 2025, this is the first official confirmation from Kenya Airways.
Kenya Airways looking for partners: A difficult mission
In light of SAA's withdrawal, Kenya Airways has now intensified its search for new partners. The company is focusing on airlines in West and South Africa, although CEO Kilavuka emphasizes that the profitability of the potential partner is not the primary requirement. He argues that the alliance's goal is precisely to make member airlines profitable.
However, finding suitable partners on the African continent is fraught with challenges. African aviation is characterized by a multitude of small, often state-run airlines struggling with financial problems, outdated fleets, and inefficient structures. Sylvain Bosc, a renowned aviation analyst, noted that the pool of suitable partners is small. Ethiopian Airlines has already secured a strong position in various regions through strategic investments in airlines such as ASKY Airlines in Togo, Zambia Airways, and Malawi Airlines. In addition, many African governments are reluctant to relinquish state control over their national airlines, making cooperation and mergers difficult.
The recent signing of a strategic agreement between Kenya Airways and Air Tanzania to improve connectivity in East and Southern Africa could be a first step in this new direction. It demonstrates that Kenya Airways continues to rely on bilateral agreements and strategic partnerships to strengthen its network. However, the challenge remains to find a partner with the same strategic vision and the necessary scale to create a viable alternative to established regional and international competitors.
The future of African aviation
The collapse of the alliance between SAA and Kenya Airways is a setback for the vision of continental consolidation. The African aviation industry remains fragmented and dominated by airlines from the Middle East and Europe, which serve a large portion of traffic with their large hubs and modern fleets. The vision of a strong African airline that is globally competitive therefore remains a distant dream for the time being.
At the same time, SAA's withdrawal is a signal that the South African airline is prioritizing its own restructuring and strategic realignment. Focusing on internal reforms rather than risky alliances could be seen as a necessary step to stabilize the company, which has repeatedly struggled with financial and operational problems in recent years.
The failure of the SAA-Kenya Airways deal highlights the profound political, economic, and structural challenges that stand in the way of establishing a successful pan-African airline group. It remains to be seen whether Kenya Airways' efforts to find new partners will bear fruit and whether the vision of an integrated African aviation sector will one day become a reality. Until then, the individual national airlines remain in an intensely competitive environment where efficiency and strategic clarity are crucial.