The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and has put the European aviation industry on high alert. While the EU Commission is explicitly warning of an impending shortage of aviation fuel, the German Federal Government is trying to reassure domestic market participants and travelers.
The backdrop to this development is the ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important chokepoints for the transport of crude oil and refined products. A rise in the price of crude oil to $97 per barrel, along with reports of thwarted attacks on energy infrastructure in Kuwait, has further heightened nervousness on the stock markets. Despite these warning signs, the German government assures that the supply of kerosene to German airports will remain uninterrupted at least until the end of the second quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, the share prices of major European airlines are coming under pressure, as the industry faces rising operating costs and potential logistical bottlenecks.
Price trends and market reactions on the energy exchanges
On Thursday, international oil markets saw a significant price surge. The price of a barrel of Brent crude rose by more than 2,5 percent, approaching the psychologically important $100 mark. This increase is a direct consequence of the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran. Traders' concerns relate less to an immediate physical disruption of supplies and more to the risk of a permanent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A substantial portion of the world's traded oil passes through this strait, making it a strategic hub for global energy supply.
Investors on European stock markets reacted promptly to the changed circumstances. Shares of major airline groups such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM each lost around one percent of their value in early trading. For airlines, kerosene represents one of the largest single items in their cost structure. A persistently high oil price directly reduces profit margins unless the additional costs can be passed on to passengers through fuel surcharges. The industry is thus caught between high travel demand in the summer of 2026 and rapidly rising operating costs.
Discrepancy between Brussels warnings and Berlin's all-clear
Within the political leadership in Europe, there is currently a mixed picture regarding the assessment of the supply situation. Following consultations with experts in oil and gas coordination, the EU Commission's energy department issued a warning. It emphasizes that markets for petroleum products could tighten considerably if the situation does not ease in the coming weeks. The availability of kerosene is considered particularly critical. The Commission notes that while Europe is not currently experiencing any physical disruptions, the price effects are already being felt. According to Brussels, a deterioration of the situation in the Gulf region would inevitably lead to shortages at the consumer level.
In contrast, the German federal government is striking a more cautious tone. Christoph Ploß, the federal government's tourism coordinator, emphasized in a statement to the Rheinische Post that the supply of goods and services for German tourists is absolutely guaranteed until at least the end of June 2026. According to current information, there is no indication of an impending shortage even after that date. Berlin bases this assessment on increased production at domestic refineries and successful efforts to diversify imports. The federal government is signaling its readiness to act and points to ongoing communication with the energy sector and airlines to be able to react quickly should the situation worsen.
The role of international refinery capacity
A crucial factor in the current stability of the German kerosene markets is the utilization of refineries. Despite the difficult import conditions from the Middle East, German sites have been able to maintain stable capacities. Domestic production is supplemented by additional imports via Western European ports, which are less affected by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The international aviation industry had already assured the market prior to the summer season that it had sufficient reserves to maintain travel throughout the summer months.
Nevertheless, the situation remains fragile. The report from Kuwait about the defense against enemy drone and missile attacks underscores how vulnerable the region's production and processing facilities are. Should key refineries in the Middle East be directly damaged, this would not only disrupt the flow of crude oil but also affect global exports of refined kerosene. Experts are therefore closely monitoring whether production increases in other regions, such as North America or Asia, could be sufficient to permanently compensate for a potential shortfall from the Gulf region.
Logistical challenges and outlook for the summer season
For airlines, the current situation means not only a fight against rising prices, but also a logistical challenge. To ensure the supply of kerosene at major hubs like Frankfurt and Munich, supply chains sometimes have to be adjusted at short notice. The closure or disruption of transport routes in the Middle East means that tankers have to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which extends delivery times and further drives up transport costs.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for air travel in summer 2026 remains cautiously optimistic regarding the physical feasibility of flights. Both policymakers and businesses are doing everything in their power to prevent travel from grinding to a halt due to fuel shortages. The focus is now on the coming weeks: Should a diplomatic solution to the conflict between the US and Iran fail to materialize, the pressure on the kerosene markets will intensify. The industry is already preparing for various scenarios to ensure passenger mobility even under difficult energy conditions.