For Russian airlines, the sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States of America, Canada, the United Kingdom and others are causing serious problems. Lessors are demanding their aircraft back and the supply of spare parts is no longer guaranteed.
Due to the sanctions, more and more lessors are demanding back the aircraft that is leased to Russian carriers. There is a fairly short transition period, but the display has already begun. About half of the total fleet operated by Russian airlines is leased from Western lessors. Some of the machines are registered abroad for tax reasons, mainly in Ireland and the Bermuda Islands. However, this does not affect the fact that the sanctions affect leasing transactions with Russian companies.
The consequence of this is that many carriers will gradually lose their aircraft. But that's not all: Boeing announced that it would stop providing technical support and supplying spare parts to Russian suppliers. It is expected that other manufacturers will behave similarly. This means that airlines will also face serious problems for aircraft that are owned or leased by Chinese lessors, for example.
Although Iran has proven over many years that it is possible to fly with “homemade” spare parts, the Russian Federation is likely to lack the necessary know-how in the matter of replicas in the short term. This would be a solution in the long term, but the aircraft then immediately lose all resale value and many states could refuse entry due to safety concerns.
"Soviet Tin" could be reactivated
Russia has at least a theoretical joker to cushion the problem for a short time. At many airports there is a lot of "Soviet tin" that could be reactivated. However, this is not possible overnight, since most machines have to be extensively serviced in order to be able to be made airworthy again. It is highly likely that the flying personnel will also have to be trained on a large scale and it is questionable whether sufficient flight engineers and, if necessary, navigators can be hired at short notice. Nevertheless, this way could be an emergency solution for Russian airlines. However, this is associated with enormously high costs.
The Kremlin has long been pursuing the strategy that the Russian carriers should only operate aircraft from "domestic production" if possible. But it's not as easy as the government thinks it is. It is true that many machines were produced “on stock”, but the demand caused by the loss of western equipment cannot be covered with them. And the planes are not that “purely Russian” either, because many important components are imported from the West and it is precisely these that are subject to the sanctions. Thus, Russia is forced to completely reorganize the production. It wasn't impossible, but it takes a long time and everything has to be certified. Therefore, no rapid replacement from "domestic production" can be expected.
Supply of spare parts for Russian aircraft still chaotic
Added to this is the fact that Russian aircraft production has an Achilles heel: the supply of spare parts is an unsolved problem that has so far been a thorn in the side of even local airlines. Sometimes there are still weeks of waiting for parts that would be available from Western manufacturers within a maximum of 24 hours. This not only costs a lot of money, but is also problematic in the current situation.
In addition, there is the general issue of maintenance. Many Russian airlines have the work done abroad, for example at Lufthansa Technik. This not only has prestige reasons, but can also be a requirement of the lessor. Of course, there are numerous MRO companies in the Russian Federation, some of which work to the highest standards, but without spare parts it will be difficult. For example, Lufthansa Technik and other western providers have already announced that they will start working with Russian customers due to the sanctions that are being discussed after Putin's war against Ukraine.
In summary, Russian airlines are being hit hard by Western sanctions. Aeroflot and co can still hide this a little, but gradually large parts of the fleet will be lost and serious problems will arise in the area of maintenance. The consequence of this is that more machines will go "AOG". A short-term solution can only lie in the reactivation of ancient Soviet-made machines, because the Russian aviation industry cannot remedy the situation quickly, especially since it is itself affected by sanctions that affect production. The summer of 2022 is likely to be complicated for Russian airlines not only because of the extensive airspace closures, but also for the reasons described in this article. The "homemade brand" of spare parts could come, but this would devalue aircraft owned in one fell swoop.