Will air traffic ever return to 2019 levels? Eurocontrol is setting up three different scenarios which, in the best case scenario, envisage a recovery by 2024. In another scenario, however, this would not be the case until 2029.
In the most optimistic simulation game, traffic is expected to return to 2024 levels by 2019. In the second scenario - highly likely according to Eurocontrol - traffic in 2024 would only be 92 percent of the 2019 value. In the third scenario, the volume in 2024 will be 75 percent of the value of 2019 and will only reach the figure of 2029 in 2019.
“Even in the most positive scenario, we do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels prior to 2024. There is a very real prospect that this recovery could take even longer, perhaps until 2029. This is a disastrous picture for aviation and it clearly shows why it is It is so important for states to take consistent and coherent measures to support the aviation industry and to make passengers feel safe again, ”said Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn Brennan.
Scenario 1 - vaccination summer 2021
Vaccine for travelers (or end of the pandemic) widely available by summer 2021, with traffic not returning to 2024 levels until 2019.
Scenario 2 - vaccination summer 2022
Vaccine made widely available to travelers (or the end of the pandemic) by the summer of 2022, with traffic not returning to 2026 levels until 2019.
Scenario 3 - vaccine ineffective
Persistent infection and low passenger confidence, with traffic not returning to 2029 levels until 2019.
