In a recent analysis, the credit insurer Coface comes to the conclusion that the aviation industry is well on the way to recovery. This has a real "locomotive effect" for some other sectors. However, in view of the high energy costs, there are also potential risks.

"The recovery in air traffic has positive effects on the transport sector," says Dagmar Koch, County Manager of Coface Austria, citing the latest Coface industry analyses. The recovery is particularly strong in Western Europe, the Middle East and Japan. "The reasons for this are the reopening of China, the recovery of tourism and the effects of certain government measures," Koch continued. However, overall risks remain high due to high energy costs and sluggish global demand.

“Within the transport sector, air transport has suffered the most from the pandemic. That's why he's now experiencing the most dynamic recovery," emphasizes the Coface manager. The gradual reopening of economies since the second half of 2 has significantly changed the landscape. The reopening of the borders of China (early 2021) and Japan (late 2023) and the easing of travel conditions for international tourists (spring 2022) are strong supports. Commercial flights have also increased and are now above pre-pandemic levels - although seat occupancy remains lower. The Asia-Pacific region saw a 2023 percent increase in total passenger volume in April 2023 compared to the previous year – mainly due to China. Despite this sharp increase, demand in the region remains lower than in 171 (-2019 percent in April 18 compared to April 2023). 

More new orders at Airbus and Boeing

In Western Europe and the United States, Airbus and Boeing also saw increases in net aircraft orders. They totaled 2022 for Boeing and 774 for Airbus in 820, and there were significant new announcements at the Paris Air Show: Air IndiGo ordered 500 A320s and Air India ordered 250 Airbus and 220 Boeing aircraft.

Climate targets drive innovation and fleet renewal

"In addition, the main players in this industry are developing and pursuing strategies that take environmental concerns into account," explains Koch , so they use less energy.”

Declining sea traffic

Maritime transport currently offers a different picture: after two extraordinary years, the sector is slightly declining. Declining sea freight rates, high energy costs and stagflation are weighing on the financial results of shipping companies. Maersk and CMA CGM revenues declined 2023 percent and 26 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of 30 year-on-year. They are still well above the level of Q1 2019.

These revenue declines are primarily due to a price effect (the fall in freight rates), while volumes fell much less. For example, the container throughput index fell by only 2023 percent in the period January-April 3 compared to the previous year. This drop in volume is partly passed on to rail and road transport, which is mainly used to transport goods from the ports.

Finally, freight transport is currently benefiting from lower energy and fuel costs compared to 2022, allowing sea, rail and road transport to partially offset lower freight volumes.