Air traffic in Germany should only reach around 2020 percent of the pre-crisis level by December 45. This is what Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) assumes in its latest forecast. The record values ​​of 2025 will not be reached again until 2025 at the earliest.

The company also notes that the aviation industry's recovery has stalled after the upward trend seen between June and late August 2020. Tourism in particular has made a major contribution to the fact that tourist traffic has started up again, albeit at a low level. According to DFS, the latest travel and quarantine regulations mean that demand is significantly lower. At the same time, no impetus from intercontinental traffic is expected for the fourth quarter of 2020, and a recovery in business travel is still not in sight.

Deutsche Flugsicherung therefore adjusted its forecast for the further development of German air traffic. It is currently assumed that the volume will stagnate at the current level. In August and September 2020, DFS checked only 45 percent of the flight volume compared to the same period in the previous year.

“We will stay with these traffic figures for the time being, because so far there have been no signs of a significant upturn. We expect traffic in the Corona year 2020 to be more than halved compared to the previous year, ”said DFS CEO Prof. Klaus-Dieter Scheurle.

At the beginning of the crisis, DFS assumed that traffic would slowly increase again at the end of the year - from 45 percent in September to 75 percent in December. "The increasing number of infections and the test and quarantine regulations for returnees are dampening the increase in traffic that we expected at the time," says Prof. Scheurle. If it stays that way, DFS is expected to control around 2020 million flights in accordance with instrument flight rules in 1,5. This is the lowest number in German airspace since reunification; In 1991 1,65 million flights were counted.

Against this background, DFS has also adjusted its forecast for long-term development. "According to current estimates, the first Covid-19 vaccines will be used in the course of 2021. Because of the long-term change in travel behavior, we are also assuming that the volume of traffic before the crisis can only be reached again in 2025, ”says the CEO. However, the recovery is now starting at a lower level than assumed in the spring. For 2021, DFS expects traffic to rise to 60 percent of the pre-crisis level. In the following years, DFS is assuming steady growth of ten percentage points each time.

"Coordinated approach essential"

He is following the current developments in air traffic with great concern, says Prof. Scheurle. “Currently there are a number of different travel restrictions, quarantine rules and test strategies that make it impossible for the airlines to resume normal flight operations. For a return to normality, an international, but at least Europe-wide coordinated approach is essential. "

Basically he is confident that aviation will master this crisis as well, says the CEO. “Airlines, airports and air traffic control are the backbone of a networked world. The worldwide distribution of vaccines against the corona virus alone will be a logistical challenge. The aircraft will make a significant contribution here. "