In Europe, another “lockdown wave” is putting aviation and tourism under great pressure. The industry is very concerned about Ireland, which was the first EU country to declare this situation again. The Czech Republic also announced the lockdown in Slovakia, and the government will decide on Thursday whether the country will be "sealed off" again.

In other European countries, including Austria and Germany, individual cities and / or districts have been quarantined. In the two states mentioned in particular, however, there is a real threat of a “second lockdown”. This would have fatal effects on the economy and the more countries join this new measure, the more difficult it will be for the airlines.

It can therefore not be ruled out that in the event of "Europe-wide lockdowns" one or the other airline will have to stop flight operations again. The starting position is in fact comparable to that of March, because even before the tough measures, with a view to the development in Italy, fear was circulating that many passengers did not even start their booked flights. It happened, especially with low-cost airlines, that almost fully booked machines were occupied by only a few passengers, because the rest of them did not even make it to the airport.

But there is one crucial difference: The tickets for the “no-shows” were paid for at the time and apart from the taxis, which only very few passengers actually reclaim, there is nothing in most tariffs. The airline can't help the fact that the traveler simply didn't show up. Lauda in particular should have saved himself a lot of money with the "no-shows", because the taxis are only due when the passenger has actually flown. In Vienna, for example, the “additional costs” are considerably higher than 9,99 euros and less. If the passenger does not show up and does not ask for the tax to be returned, the empty seat brought in money. However, if the passenger flies and does not buy anything else, the lowcoster pays on top of it and heavily.

But now in autumn 2020 the situation is different: the airlines no longer have full booking books, because those who want or have to travel now book at short notice, sometimes even on the day of departure. This means that it is very difficult for the airlines to estimate the demand, because the usual long-term bookings by Sparefrohs and the usual bookings about six to four weeks before departure are completely missing. At the moment, business travelers can only be milked to a very limited extent at short notice, because they are very rarely out and about. Even prices in the single-digit euro range cannot stimulate demand. Well how then? What use is a ticket for seven euros if you need an expensive PCR test to travel to the destination country and you need an expensive PCR test when you return to Austria, or you go into quarantine?

Flying into a time when several European countries want to enforce the lockdown with very few advance bookings is even more difficult than in March. The industry was still hoarding billions of euros from its customers, which were only slowly and hesitantly returned. But you no longer have the money and at some point the state aid will also be used up.

In summary: The winter is getting frostier than ever and one must not forget that we are writing October 2020 and have not yet reached the real winter. Nobody knows how the pandemic will develop in the frosty months when people prefer to stay indoors for reasons of temperature. If the first countries declare lockdowns of several weeks in October, it cannot be ruled out that large parts of the winter will have to be spent in this state. For the aviation industry, this will be a struggle for survival and corporations such as Ryanair and Easyjet could then find themselves in a position where they could need high levels of government aid. The emphasis is on “could” because nobody knows how the pandemic and its “side effects” will develop.

A look at Bavaria shows, however, that national egoism is gradually gaining the upper hand again, because the state wants to see a negative PCR test from commuters once a week, which they of course have to pay for themselves. Based on the price charged at Vienna Airport, it would be 480 euros per month. Whether you can claim these costs from the tax office or not - this is a question that the first tax advisors are already worrying about. Aviation wants to prevent precisely such absurdities and is pushing for negative rapid tests to be introduced across Europe as a prerequisite for entry. These would be considerably cheaper and would offer the industry more security. In this context, Greece is now putting pressure on the EU. One can only hope that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) thinks European and does not represent the Bavarian CSU line.