Russian aviation is headed for serious trouble due to international sanctions imposed in response to the military incursion in Ukraine. Moving in aircraft leased from western lessors is not that problematic at all.

The fact that spare parts are no longer available in the usual way hits the carriers much harder. However, the Russian government downplays this and says that it will be obtained from India or Turkey. Appropriate negotiations have already started.

The plan: Formally, intermediaries in the two countries mentioned should buy the required spare parts and then sell them on to Russia. The planned procedure is very reminiscent of Iran, because for many years airlines from this country were not able to buy directly from western aircraft manufacturers. The manufacturers try not to use the "dark channels", but this is not always possible. However, Russia has to reckon with the fact that Boeing, Embraer, Airbus and other producers will pay very close attention to where the spare parts are delivered, because one could literally burn one's fingers if it became public that these reached Russia in a roundabout way.

At the same time, it can be assumed that the EU and the United States, for example, will put pressure on Turkey and India and take a closer look at the supply of spare parts for aircraft. Thus the "circle to Iran" closes again, because "self-made brand" established itself there. It is not so far-fetched that Russia has to go this route, but then the aircraft loses all market value, because no potential serious buyer wants to have even a single aircraft in which spare parts not authorized by the manufacturer have been installed. Except for a few states where air traffic control is in any case inadequate, the probability of such "dubious aircraft" being entered in the register is close to zero.

"Do-it-yourself brand" shouldn't be an easy task for the Russian aircraft manufacturers anyway. The Kremlin repeatedly tries to emphasize both the strength and the competence of the UAC, but it has long since lost touch with western competition. Russian aircraft are also unpopular with local operators, and not because of quality reasons, but because the supply of spare parts is the biggest problem, to put it mildly. Assuming that parts for Western devices can be "copied" quickly is rather utopian, because you can't even do it for the machines you make yourself.

Some airlines return aircraft "voluntarily".

For some Russian operators it is not so tragic that the aircraft of the western Lessors have to be returned. In many cases, you can't do anything with it anyway, because the opportunities to fly abroad are becoming fewer every day. So you don't have to worry about spare parts and the like. In the long term, this is likely to be an expensive affair for the Kremlin, because without strong financial injections there is a risk of airline bankruptcies in Russia. Contradictory slogans cannot hide this either.

It is obvious that the sanctions are now taking effect. Some airlines have flown machines to Turkey, for example, on the instructions of the lessor. According to reports, there are bottlenecks in fuel supply at some Russian airports, because kerosene is now in short supply. In addition, the airlines have to fly absurd detours on the few international flights that still exist because of the airspace closures. That costs significantly more fuel and therefore money. In addition, the ruble has significantly depreciated and Russian airlines will gradually run out of money. This closes the circle to the bankruptcy wave again.

Moscow Sheremetyevo closes Terminal D

The airports are already noticing the effects of the sanctions. Air traffic has collapsed rapidly in many places. The extent is strongly reminiscent of the beginning of the corona pandemic. For example, Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport has already announced the closure of Terminal D on March 15, 2022. Areas E and F are already closed. The remaining traffic will be concentrated on buildings B and C. This does not apply to General Aviation, which uses Terminal A.

The latter is feeling the effects, for example, that the Isle of Man, popular with oligarchs, has begun to remove “oligarch jets” from the register. The civil aviation authority confirmed the procedure on request and justified this with the sanctions, among other things. As a result, aircraft are no longer registered and may no longer be used. To put it simply: A car without a license plate is not allowed to drive on the road. In aviation, the process is more complex, but ultimately leads to the same result for the owner of the machine.