The IATA aviation association is very concerned about the summer of 2021. So far, the airlines have been hoping that with nationwide vaccinations, the entry and quarantine regulations will vanish and demand will pick up again.

The IATA has now set up various scenarios and the worst case assumes that the volume in 2021 could be only 38 percent of 2019. If this were to happen, the survival of many providers would be at stake. IATA President Alexandre de Juniac said that it would "make a tough year even harder".

The approval of Biontech-Pfizer's vaccine sparked new optimism in the aviation and tourism industries. However, this has largely evaporated, as vaccinations are only progressing at a snail's pace, especially in the European Union. There is also a real shortage economy, which is significant because the cheapest provider was predominantly used. According to the EU Commission, Astrazeneca cannot deliver the contractually agreed quantities quickly enough, and on top of that, most health authorities in the EU countries have doubts about its effectiveness in people over 65 years of age.

The EU continues to be chaotic

But it is also a fact that nothing is being done to enable the aviation industry to survive on its own. Agreements at EU level are often already “for the bin” on the day the decision is made, because Germany and Austria, for example, then rush out on their own. Apparently they only agree that they want to make traveling too complicated and cumbersome as possible. This has a massive negative effect on the demand from the airlines.

But that is exactly the problem that the carriers are facing. At the moment the occupancy rate is catastrophic and new bookings are only made at very short notice. Long-term advance bookings for the summer months are the absolute exception. But the industry also has to put up with the question of whether the booking behavior could not also be partly homemade. Many consumers will think twice about buying a long-term ticket again and, in the event that the trip is impossible due to the pandemic, will have to follow the airline or the tour operator for months to get a refund. Everything is clearly regulated by law, but that was ignored by most of the providers because they speculated on voucher solutions. This was rejected by the EU Commission because the risk of insolvency, which is extremely acute in view of the pandemic, would have been passed on to the end customer.

Different views on summer vacations

IATA boss de Juniac also emphasizes that the worst-case scenario will hopefully not occur and that the forecast from November 2020 - 50 percent of the pre-crisis level - is retained, but the publication of the aviation association shows that the worst is expected.

Austria's Chancellor Sebastian Kurz last said in a Monday on Monday Pressekonferenzthat he continues to expect that beach holidays will be possible without any problems in the summer of 2021. The Chief Medical Officer of Ireland takes an entirely different point of view. He is of the opinion that this year Holidays abroad can literally remove make-up.