Europe's politicians are still holding back from promoting “domestic holidays”, because the stakes are even higher this year than last year. The tourism industry and the airlines are in massive financial straits and it is very likely that they will not be able to cope with a second "epidemic summer". But the signs for a “normal season” are not exactly rosy.

At the ITB Now virtual trade fair, representatives from airlines, tour operators and tourism associations are spreading enormous amounts of optimism. One could almost believe that in a few weeks the whole corona spook will be over and then the whole world can be traveled again. At least within the European Union, great hopes are placed on the so-called “Green Pass”. However, many people will not be able to get a full vaccination at all by the summer vacation. The recent problems with AstraZeneca's vaccine may be resolved at least in the short term, still have a problematic effect.

Summer 2020 could repeat itself

Review: In March, April and May 2020 in particular, members of the government in Austria and Germany spread the specter of horror that vacations abroad would not be possible and that one should, please, book domestically. In the Alpine republic that was a huge blow, because the decline in foreign visitors could not be compensated by domestic tourists. Even in this segment there were sharp declines, since many obviously decided to take a vacation on balconies.

From mid-June 2020, at the latest from the beginning of July 2020, the borders of almost all holiday countries were open. It was possible to spend a vacation on the beach without any problems, but at that time many people were influenced by the fear tactics of the Austrian government and opted for balconies. This also had quite positive effects, because, for example, on the Maltese Islands there was a lot of space on the few sandy beaches. In other words. It was a summer that was uncrowded and quite pleasant. It was a disaster for hoteliers and airlines.

But then, for example, a few corona cases occurred in Croatia and Spain and the governments in Germany and Austria reacted in panic. Quarantines were introduced, which at that time could still be circumvented with negative tests. The Federal Republic tested returnees at least free of charge, which immediately lured the so-called “climate protectors” out of their holes, who then argued that this would indirectly promote climate-damaging flights. In the Alpine republic, the citizens were taken by surprise and initially there were no free test options. Only the wave of returnees from Croatia, most of whom were traveling by car, needed a rethink.

Governments reacted in panic over fewer cases

The fact that the Covid numbers in autumn 2020 and in the current winter 2021 are many times higher than in summer 2020 shows that at that time there was simply no plan and not very effective. But that is precisely the great uncertainty for summer 2021, because vaccinations will be difficult to access for many until the main holiday season. This means that there is only the possibility of keeping the “Green Pass” valid by means of tests. It has not yet been decided who will pay for the costs of the tests. However, a repetition of summer 2020 is to be expected, because everything could be opened first and then some countries could panic again and quickly introduce quarantines.

The fact is, however, that many countries are so dependent on tourism that they will soon run out of air. The tourist businesses are absolutely at their limit, so that a plague summer 2.0 could threaten a wave of bankruptcies. This has resulted in an enormous number of unemployed and thus the necessity arises that one has to come to terms with the fact that the virus will remain for a long time. Instead of finding solutions, unfortunately many governments rely on lockdowns, which are supported by fewer and fewer people.

Spain expects full recovery by September 2021

Greece and Spain are very optimistic about the summer of 2021, although it is already clear that one in Greece a vaccination certificate or alternatively a negative test certificate will need for entry. This was announced by Minister of Tourism Harry Theoharis during ITB Now. It is still open whether anything will change by the summer holidays. Spain is currently also demanding negative test results, although antigen confirmations are not recognized.

It is therefore quite exciting how many tourists are actually expected. The director of the Spanish tourism organization Turespaña, Arturo Ortiz, told the industry newspaper FVW during ITB Now that around 50 percent of the 2019 volume is expected. In the previous year there were around 2,5 million tourists from Germany in the country. He assumes that the Germans' Mallorca holidays around Easter will gradually push the numbers.

He also told the medium that there will be a sharp increase in visitor numbers from the end of May or the beginning of June 2021. First of all, the Balearic Islands would be leading the comeback of tourism from Easter. The bottom line is that the manager expects incoming tourism to recover in three phases. The first will start around Easter, with Ortiz reckoning with around 35 percent of the normal volume, according to FVW. During the summer holidays (phase 2), around half of the guests in 2019 will be had, and the normal level will be expected again from September. It remains to be seen whether this is very optimistic or realistic.